Why The S&P Will Drop 25% in 2025
It’s been a great time in the market with the S&P +31.46% over the last year. But – for a number of reasons – I suspect 2025 will surprise many in being a bad year with the S&P dropping 25%….
Welcome To October 1929: The Implosion Of The Greatest Bubble Of All Time
For the first time in what seems like forever, the market corrected over the last 7 trading sessions. The leading Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) – dominated by The Magnificent 7 – lost 5.5% over that time period. At first it looked like…
The Bearish Case Has Rarely Been Stronger
While the S&P is near all time highs it might surprise you to know that the bearish case has rarely been stronger during my almost 20-year career in the business. In this blog I’m going to lay out a bunch…
The Stock Market Is Priced For Perfection, FDX -11% Premarket
To be honest, it’s hard to find reasons to be bearish on stocks right now. The Federal Reserve essentially declared “Mission Accomplished” in its war against inflation last Wednesday. And they appear to have accomplished this without tipping the economy…
Sentiment Is Euphoric But The CPI May Be Setting Up A Powell Smackdown, Is ORCL A Precedent For ADBE?
The stock market is starting to levitate and bears are nowhere to be found. The S&P is trading at its high for the year and the VIX is at a post-COVID low around 12. But the in line CPI may…
Why My Plunge Into NKE Worked And UNFI Didn’t
This morning I wrote about how I was “Nibbling On NKE” heading into its earnings report this afternoon. It was similar to the plunge into United Natural Foods (UNFI) I made on Monday ahead of its earnings report Tuesday morning….
Peak Hawkishness: All In On TLT
[Powell] didn’t sound to me like he was itching to hike again. He sounds like he’s pretty comfortable where they are, sitting back, and watching things play out – Michael Feroli, Chief Economist JP Morgan (quoted in Nick Timiraos, “Fed…
TSLA Is A Buy
Those of you who have followed me for a long time probably thought you’d never hear this: Tesla (TSLA) is a buy. My beef with TSLA was always that it was significantly overvalued but that is no longer the case….
Revisiting Thursday
It’s been a few days since last Thursday’s stunning reversal giving us some time to sort out what it means. As predicted some found technical analogies to support the idea that the price action suggested a bottom was near. The…
Countdown To The August CPI
We’re a CPI Report away from Jackson Hole being peak hawkish – Rob Crumpton, Stocktwits, Friday September 2 6:23am PST Rob Crumpton had a great tweet on Stocktwits Friday morning. While everybody is in a panic over Fed Chairman Powell’s…