Why The S&P Will Drop 25% in 2025
It’s been a great time in the market with the S&P +31.46% over the last year. But – for a number of reasons – I suspect 2025 will surprise many in being a bad year with the S&P dropping 25%….
The Banks Tank, Presidential Debate, August CPI And The Fed
Market Commentary: JP Morgan (JPM) is down 7% today after President and COO Daniel Pinto said “Net interest income (NII) expectations are a bit too high. Next year is going to a bit more challenging” at an industry conference. Ally…
Why Kamala Harris’s Plan To Tax Unrealized Capital Gains Would Crash The Stock Market
Kamala Harris’s plan to tax unrealized capital gains for individuals worth more than $100 million is supposed to be a tax on the ultra-rich but in fact it would crash the entire stock market, hurting everybody who owns stocks. Why?…
DG’s Struggles: Economic and Political Implications; Adding To My Position
Perhaps the most important data point this week came from Dollar General (DG) when it reported its second straight disastrous quarter Thursday morning. For the second quarter in a row, DG lowered its full year guidance. DG is now expecting…
This Will End In Tears
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The Great Disconnect Grows: Dems Control Senate, Trump Supporters Protest, Russell ATHs, Bitcoin $37k and TSLA $756, Extreme Speculative Behavior and Bubble Valuations
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Please Shoot Me On The Midnight Train To Georgia: Adventures In The Bubble
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An “Inside Day” / “Dueling Tails” Still Define The Range, GDX & GDXJ, Bigger Picture Issues Through Year End
Note: A few months ago I started writing a daily morning market email for clients, friends and family. I recently decided to start making this email more broadly available. Email me at gfeirman@topgunfp.com if you’d like to be added to…
America on the Brink
George Floyd died at a moment of extreme dysfunction in American political life. Relations are so poisonous and so polarized between the parties that we are not seeing the kind of bipartisan meetings on Capitol Hill that typically occur at…
After The Cliff
NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same…