Note: A few months ago I started writing a daily morning market email for clients, friends and family. I recently decided to start making this email more broadly available. Email me at gfeirman@topgunfp.com if you’d like to be added to…
Yesterday, the great Howard Marks came out with one of his memos. I consider Marks one of the Top 15 investors of all-time and I try to read most of his memos. Yesterday’s memo, “Coming Into Focus” (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/coming-into-focus.pdf), was one…
Everyone can see and feel that this is different and can sense the bizarre nature of the market response: we are in the top 10% of historical price earnings ratios for the S&P on prior earnings and simultaneously are …
George Floyd died at a moment of extreme dysfunction in American political life. Relations are so poisonous and so polarized between the parties that we are not seeing the kind of bipartisan meetings on Capitol Hill that typically occur at…
The consensus view is that this crisis is all about the coronavirus. Once the coronavirus is contained, markets will bottom, if they haven’t already, and we’ll rally into year end, eventually making new highs as the bull market resumes. One…
The more I think about, the more inclined I am to think that we are heading for Civilization Breakdown, due to the collapse of the dollar as a medium of exchange, like Germany in the early 1920s, as opposed to…
Sent to Client Note List members Wednesday 3/18/20 at 8:35pm PST: 14 months ago (Jan 2019) in my Client Note “The Everything Bubble And The Second Great Depression” (https://www.topgunfp.com/the-everything-bubble-and-the-second-great-depression/), I laid out my case for what I saw as an…
Last week, James Mackintosh had an interesting article in the WSJ about the stealth bear market. His main point was that stocks have essentially gone nowhere since Jan 26, 2018. Digging a little deeper, he points out that the Russell…
The importance of Apple to the foundation of the everything bubble cannot be overstated – Kevin Duffy, Co-Founder, Bearing Asset Management The last few months have witnessed the return of volatility. The S&P is down 14% from its all time…
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate at 0.25%-0.50%. Since then, markets have soared as investors celebrate the continuation of easy money. However, the Fed also fairly clearly telegraphed a rate rise on December 14th. In…