There is an important front page story in today’s Wall Street Journal by Jon Hilsenrath and Nick Timiraos entitled “Fed’s Chance Of Soft Landing Narrows” [SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED]. It’s important because the market is priced for a soft landing – but…
Rising Treasury yields are cascading throughout the economy in the form of higher borrowing costs, squeezing households and businesses alike. Car loans, credit cards and corporate debt all stand to get more expensive as rates rise – “Surging Interest Rates…
A close analysis of earnings reports from five companies over the last two weeks suggests to me that economic growth has peaked. The clearest example of a coming slowdown comes from $10 billion home furnishings retailer Restoration Hardware (RH). On…
Online pet retailer Chewy (CHWY) reported 4Q21 earnings after the close Tuesday. In this blog, I’m going to analyze those results because I think they shed light on some important macro trends. The first macro trend is economic reopening. During…
The stock market rallied hard Tuesday on hopes that Russia will not invade Ukraine. The S&P was +1.58%, the NASDAQ +2.53% and the Russell +2.76%. 75% of stocks on the NYSE and NASDAQ advanced on the day. Since most investors…
On Monday March 23, 2020 before the market opened – in the midst of the COVID panic – Chairman Powell essentially told financial markets that he would do whatever it took to support financial markets: The Federal Reserve will continue…
$20 billion used car retailer CarMax (KMX) reported earnings for the quarter ended November 30 Wednesday morning. While the top line was on fire at +65% this didn’t translate to the bottom line with EPS up only 15%. Why? Similar…
Monday’s trading session was bullish and the trend remains up regardless of the fundamentals. The most positive development was the broadening out of market strength. Last week was all about mega cap tech pulling up a thin market. Today the…
The combination of all this fiscal and monetary stimulus is turbocharging what Keynes called aggregate demand. All that demand is putting tremendous stress on the global supply chain resulting in bottlenecks and raw material inflation. The inflation we are now…
For the first time in 40 years we have real inflation in the US and the implications are enormous. It means the end of the 40 year bond bull market, a stock market crash and The Second Great Depression. In…