Probably the most important development in financial markets over the last few months is the steep rise in interest rates. Since the Fed started cutting rates with a 50 basis point cut on September 18, the 10 year yield has…
The March CPI Report came in hotter than expected Wednesday morning with both headline and core increasing 0.4% from a month earlier – compared to expectations (and hopes) of 0.3%. As a result, stocks fell and the yield on the…
Interest rates matter. A lot. Depending on their level, interest rates can stimulate or restrict economic growth. The level of interest rates is also crucial in the valuation of financial assets. Currently there is a lot of disagreement about where…
I just filled up my gas tank and it was over $5/gallon. This is just another example of sticky inflation: Inflation may not be going up as fast as it was a couple years ago but prices are still quite…
As markets have digested the slightly hotter than expected February CPI on Tuesday morning, the idea of sticky inflation has started to take hold and the debate about the timing of the first rate cut pushed back to June. A…
At the end of his long life, Charlie Munger expressed doubts about the future of value investing: I think that the modern investors, to get ahead, almost has to get in a few stocks that are way above average. They…
My biggest position is the Long Term Treasury ETF (TLT). After being early and getting slaughtered, TLT has rallied hard in the last two months. The reasons are tame CPI reports and the Fed Pivot. With the 10 year yield…
Fed Chair Powell sent interest rates soaring and tanked the stock market Thursday when he continued to press his “higher for longer” narrative at the Economic Club of New York. He doesn’t seem to understand that it’s time to change…
One result of the relentless rise in interest rates – which reversed a bit last week – is that the Fed is now on pause and likely done with its rate hiking campaign. Fed Futures are pricing in a 94%…
On August 24, I argued in “The Bear Market Rally Is Over” that the outperformance of The Magnificent 7 was masking weak overall market internals and that the bear market was over. About a month later on September 20, the…