The S&P closed above its 200 DMA Monday on hope that the Fed is close to done in its fight against inflation and the economy will avoid a recession. Investors are pricing in a “Goldilocks scenario” according to Liz Ann…
Stocks are bouncing hard into the start of 4Q22 earnings season as investors anticipate the end of the Fed’s rate hiking cycle. The Fed Whisperer Nick Timiraos had a must read article on the front page of today’s Wall Street…
There is an article coming on the front page of Friday’s WSJ that you are going to want to read (“Markets, Fed Split On Rate Forecasts”, Timiraos and Otani [SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED]). As you can see in the graph above from…
The December CPI Report came out an hour ago and the market is gyrating wildly as it tries to interpret it and price it in. The somewhat technical blog I wrote yesterday about headline vs core vs “supercore” CPI is…
I apologize in advance if this blog makes your head explode. But apparently it is no longer enough to focus on the headline CPI or even core CPI. CPI wonks are focused on the “supercore” [SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED] ahead of tomorrow…
There’s not a lot going on this morning but I’ll touch on a few things to keep an eye on. The most important event this week is the December CPI on Thursday morning at 8:30am EST. In this morning’s WSJ,…
Here are the headline CPI numbers for the first 11 months of 2022: November 2022: 7.1% October 2022: 7.7% September 2022: 8.2% August 2022: 8.3% July 2022: 8.5% June 2022: 9.1% May 2022: 8.6% April 2022: 8.3% March 2022: 8.5%…
Next week is the start of the 4Q22 earnings season and the December CPI Report is on Thursday morning. In addition, KB Homes (KBH) will report earnings for its quarter ended November 30, 2022 Wednesday afternoon which will give us…
With the NASDAQ having lost ~30% of its value from its November 2021 peak I suspect that many investors think the bottom is near. However everything I’m seeing suggests to me that it’s not. Wednesday’s announcement from Salesforce (CRM) that…
Next week is the last with significant data and events of 2022. First comes the November CPI Report on Tuesday December 13 at 8:30am EST. As long as it isn’t above October’s 7.7% I think the market should be fine….