The December CPI came in a little hotter than expected this morning. However, one of the main reasons for this is that the Shelter component – which is heavily weighted – is a lagging indicator. It doesn’t just measure newly…
At the end of his long life, Charlie Munger expressed doubts about the future of value investing: I think that the modern investors, to get ahead, almost has to get in a few stocks that are way above average. They…
My biggest position is the Long Term Treasury ETF (TLT). After being early and getting slaughtered, TLT has rallied hard in the last two months. The reasons are tame CPI reports and the Fed Pivot. With the 10 year yield…
To be honest, it’s hard to find reasons to be bearish on stocks right now. The Federal Reserve essentially declared “Mission Accomplished” in its war against inflation last Wednesday. And they appear to have accomplished this without tipping the economy…
The stock market is starting to levitate and bears are nowhere to be found. The S&P is trading at its high for the year and the VIX is at a post-COVID low around 12. But the in line CPI may…
While the Fed is done hiking rates for this cycle, my concern last weekend was that Powell may still try to talk “higher for longer” in his press conference on Wednesday due to the strong recent moves in financial markets….
Friday was an interesting day in which smaller stocks outperformed mega cap tech – the opposite of what’s happened so far this year. The Russell 2000 (IWM) was +2.92% while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) was up only 0.29%. IWM broke…
Everybody knows that December is one of the best months of the year from a seasonality perspective. And with the Federal Reserve on pause, the consensus for a year end rally is almost universal. The S&P is only 40 points…
We’re in a mini Goldilocks scenario. The soft landing is playing out – Alessio de Longis, Senior Portfolio Manager, Invesco There’s too much reliance on a soft landing at this point. We need to be a little bit cautious –…
The better than expected October CPI last Tuesday morning has ended the Fed’s rate hiking campaign. As you can see in the Fed Futures Probabilities charts above, the market is placing no chance of anything other than a pause at…