A Look Back At Next Year
ANOTHER BEAR MARKET RALLY: The stock market has rallied nicely the last couple of months and once again the bulls are saying the bottom is in. It isn’t. Like March and August this is another bear market rally – though…
Channeling Timiraos: What Powell Will Say Today
Today at 1:30pm EST Fed Chair Powell will give a speech at the Brookings Institute on “The economic outlook, inflation, and the labor market”. Let me save you some time and tell you in advance what he will say: First…
Speculating On A Powell Smackdown
NOTE: The options trade recommended in this blog is risky. You could lose all of your money. Only invest a small amount of money if you decided to take the trade. The stock and bond markets have had nice rallies…
The Roadmap Into Year End
As we enter the holiday season into year end there will be less data to move markets and seasonality historically plays a significant role. Next week the NYSE and NASDAQ are closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday November 24 and there…
The CPI Report We Deserve
The scenario I laid out Tuesday morning is playing out exactly as I thought it might: a lower than expected October CPI Report combined with extremely bearish investor positioning has resulted in a massive relief rally (“Speculating On The October…
Things Are Starting To Break
In late September I wrote a blog titled “Something Is Going To Break”. The premise was that if the Fed didn’t start to ease up soon something would break. With the failure of crypto exchange FTX it’s starting to happen….
Speculating On The October CPI
WARNING: The trade recommended in this blog is highly speculative. You could lose all your money. If you choose to take it keep that in mind and invest only a small amount of money. I usually like to save my…
NEM: The Precious Metals Miners Are Poised To Rally
Leading gold miner Newmont (NEM) reported 3Q22 earnings Tuesday morning. NEM continues to execute with 1.49 million ounces in attributable gold production putting it on pace for 6 million ounces of production in 2022. Adjusted EBITDA of $850 million and…
A Fed Pivot But Weak Earnings
When I go out I like a burger with fries or a margarita with salt. But that’s not what the market is serving. We’ve got a Fed pivot with weak earnings. What should we do? Obviously a Fed pivot –…
Sniffing Out A Fed Pivot…. Again
Stocks rallied Friday as The Fed Whisperer Nick Timiraos penned a column suggesting that the Fed may be close to pivoting to a less hawkish stance. Timiraos suggested that – while the Fed will raise another 75 points on November…