Year End Letter: Top Gun Returns 38% in 2025
January 3, 2026 It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of all his mistakes – Jesse Livermore The test of a first rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at…
The Roots Of Financial Nihilism
When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino the job is likely to be ill done – John Maynard Keynes There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts…
The NKE Quarter
I have been stalking Nike (NKE) for 27 months now and have written four blogs on it over that period, biding my time for the right spots to increase my position while lightening up at times. I added a few…
Is CHWY The AMZN Of Pets?
$15 billion market cap Chewy (CHWY) is the leading online retailer of pet supplies. While I’m a big believer in businesses selling to pet owners because I believe that trend is in a secular bull market due to young people…
Yields Front And Center Ahead Of Fed Decision
The market is pricing in an 87% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. But the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has risen sharply over the last week. What gives? Contrary to many people’s…
The Forgotten Tech Stock
While the AI trade continues to dominate the market, one tech stock is being left out: Salesforce (CRM). CRM is down 31% YTD. With its 3Q25 earnings report coming up next Wednesday afternoon, this is an interesting moment for the…
Why I’ll Hold ULTA Through Earnings Next Week Despite Its Having Gotten Somewhat Expensive
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is the leading cosmetics retailer in the country. They had 1473 stores as of August 2, 2025 and a market cap of $24 billion as of the close on Wednesday November 26. I bought it in the…
2 GARP Stocks To Buy Ahead Of Earnings Next Week
While next week is a short week due to the Thanksgiving holiday, there are two GARP stocks reporting earnings that are presenting a nice opportunity. GARP is a term popularized by Peter Lynch and stands for Growth At a Reasonable…
When Buffett Had Enough
I am not attuned to this market environment and I don’t want to spoil a decent record by trying to play a game I don’t understand – Warren Buffett, Partnership Letter announcing the shutting down of his initial partnership, May…
Digging Into The Under-Depreciation Debate
Michael Burry’s bear case is based on the premise that the AI hyperscalers are under-depreciating their capital spending in order to keep reported GAAP profits artificially high. There is also the suggestion that much of this CapEx will be malinvestment…